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Innovation stocks can only go higher as they create new industries that are the future of the economy. You are commenting using your WordPress. You are commenting using your Twitter account. You are commenting using your Facebook account. Notify me of new comments via email.
Notify me of new posts via email. This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed. Email Address:. Skip to content. Siren songs to lure the unwary greedy include these classics: 1. Institutional buyers are coming in, and that means prices can only go higher. Share this: Tweet. Email Print. Like this: Like Loading Bookmark the permalink. Leave a Reply Cancel reply Enter your comment here Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:.
All these games make wealth inequality worse hyper-inequality , undermining social stability. Each of these systems is dependent on all the other systems what we call a tightly bound system , so when one critical system unravels, the crisis quickly spreads to the entire economic system: one domino falling knocks down all the dominoes snaking through the global economy. Those who understand how tightly interconnected, unsustainable systems are basically designed to unravel can prepare themselves by becoming antifragile : flexible, adaptable and open to the opportunities that arise when things are disorderly and unpredictable.
Thank you, Michael M. There would be some deliciously karmic justice in the "dumb money" driving a rally that forced the "smart money" to cover their shorts and chase the rally that shouldn't even be happening.
Being cursed with contrarianism, as soon as a trade gets crowded and the consensus is one way, I start looking for whatever is considered so unlikely that it's essentially "impossible. The crowded trades are 1 long the Commodity Super-Cycle and 2 long hurricane-force recession for all the persuasive reasons we all know: global scarcities, geopolitical tensions, soaring US dollar and interest rates, de-risking, crazy-stupid levels of debt and speculation, etc.
The consensus holds that "Smart Money" rotated out of tech stocks and other over-valued equities into oil and commodities. That was a smart move, indeed, and the earlier one rotated out of equities and into commodities, the smarter the trade. In this scenario, retail owners of equities are the "Bagholders," those who continue owning the losers all the way to the bottom Been there and done that.
It's a market truism that Bull cycles only end when retail drinks the speculative Kool-Aid of the moment and buys into the final gasp of the rally, allowing "Smart Money" to distribute their shares to the retail chumps, who go down with the ship when the market finally rolls over.
Maybe this script plays out, maybe not. The contrarian has these observations: 1. Institutions haven't liquidated their positions in Apple and other Big Tech stalwarts just yet. There's been trimming around the edges and that's why these stocks have been pounded by selling.
But liquidation? Not yet. These companies are still quasi-monopolies and still immensely profitable. Global Financial Crisis. They survived, and the take-away for many is that basic investment strategies weather downturns: avoid highly speculative fads meme stocks, NFTs, iffy crypto schemes, etc. These households by and large did not speculate in meme stocks, NFTs, etc. Most of these households have multiple sources of income and stores of wealth.
Even major drawdowns in equities don't threaten their financial security. Right or wrong, their experience is that even the gloomiest crises don't last. Commodities are priced on the margin, and a sharp decline in demand combined with a modest increase in supply could cascade into price declines that everyone who bought into the Commodity Super-Cycle do not believe are even possible, much less likely.
All this sets up the potential for "Bagholders" to "buy the dip" in stocks aggressively enough that "Smart Money" will be forced to cover their short positions and chase the rally. This will be frustrating to the "Smart Money:" don't those fools know we're heading into recession and they should panic-sell?
This will be frustrating for another reason: the entire point of distributing to Bagholders is to book profits and then wait for the Bagholders to sell at the bottom, in either panic or despair. Then the Smart Money scoops up the assets at bargain prices and awaits the re-entry of the burned-but- ever-greedy Bagholders. There would be some deliciously karmic justice in the "dumb money" driving a rally that forced the "smart money" to cover their shorts and chase the rally that shouldn't even be happening, dang it.
Stranger things have happened. Thank you, Stephen R. Thank you, John M. Workers are voting with their feet, and that's difficult to control. When values and expectations change, everything else eventually changes, too. What happens when the workforce no longer wants to work? We're about to find out. As with all cultural sea changes, macro statistics don't tell the full story.
The sea change is better illuminated by anecdotal evidence: workers constantly quitting to take better jobs; zero loyalty to corporate employers; workers cutting hours from full-time to part-time; workers going out for lunch and never coming back; workers giving up on selling sugar-water for the rest of their lives echoing Steve Jobs' famous challenge to John Scully: "Do you want to sell sugared water for the rest of your life?
Or do you want to come with me and change the world? Workers may sell sugar-water but their hearts are no longer in it. Some are interested in changing the world, and others are interested in changing their own lives as the means to change the world. The global lockdown revealed several great truths to many idled workers: 1 I'm wasting my life slaving away for an employer to whom I am disposable; 2 trying to own the upper-middle class lifestyle is not worth the sacrifices required, and 3 there are ways to work less and still get by, and live a better life doing so.
Once the rats are no longer interested in the rewards because they're out of reach, they jump off the wheel. Once the tax donkeys flop down in exhaustion and ask why they're working so hard to pay outrageous taxes and fees, they lose interest in carrying their heavy load ever again. When debt-serfs stop and calculate their chances to pay off their debt and reach upper-middle class Nirvana, they bail on the entire project.
People found they could get by on much less than they previously reckoned. Some found niches in the informal or gig economies, others secured a quasi-pension in the social-welfare system, others decided that net-net of expenses, they were better off quitting and staying home to care for the kids rather than pay thousands of dollars in higher taxes and childcare fees for the privilege of busting their derrieres on an endless treadmill.
People realized they wanted a career and worklife they defined and controlled rather than one defined and controlled by an employer. They realized they didn't have to sign on to a lifetime of labor as tax donkeys and debt-serfs. Employers are struggling to adapt to this cultural transition. Those demanding employees go back to the good old days are like dinosaurs expecting the meteor-strike's effects to dissipate in a few days.
The fantasies of fully automated whatever have been revealed as unrealistic. As with all such techno-fantasies, the proponents are never experts in the field being touted as the solution. Automation has limits. Robots break down, need to be reprogrammed, and need human co-workers so-called cobots.
Enthusiasts naively believed that because something is technically possible, that it automatically becomes financially viable. This is an entirely different proposition. How this all plays out is an open question. The Powers That Be don't approve, for obvious reasons: who's going to do all the work to enable our lavish lifestyles and gargantuan gains? Thank you, Sundar N. Every individual and entity seeking to maximize their private gain by prostituting themselves to the government is, well, prostituting themselves to the government.
The free-money PPP "loan" obtained by a prostitute frequented by Hunter Biden offers a vividly teachable insight into American capitalism: you don't maximize your private gains by offering a product or service that's faster, better, cheaper, you maximize your private gains by securing a government-gimme. The cornucopia of government-gimmes is vast. There are "loans" which are forgiven, i. Government-funded skims and scams are always covered by a thin veneer of serving the public interest.
Skimmers and scammers quickly discern an opportunity to maximize their private gain with a government-gimme as the floodgates of government funding open. Of course not. All government funded. There is no way a racket could reach trillion-dollar proportions without government taxation, borrowing and enforcement.
Speaking of trillion-dollar rackets, the Federal Reserve's power to benefit the few at the expense of the many is granted by the federal government. Give me the power over the money and I'll take the rest in due course, thank you very much.
A prostitute obtaining a government-gimme offers a very keen insight into the core of American capitalism, which is investing capital in capitol : every individual and entity seeking to maximize their private gain by prostituting themselves to the government is, well, prostituting themselves to the government.
That's a rather inconveniently salacious description of American capitalism. Too bad it's true. Thank you, Robert S. Thank you, Monica C. All content on this blog is provided by Trewe LLC for informational purposes only. The owner of this blog makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information on this site or found by following any link on this site. The owner will not be liable for any errors or omissions in this information nor for the availability of this information.
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