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Sound mind investing dynamic allocation 970c

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Add to watchlist. Mark Biller, Lead Manager since December 1, Mark Biller has served as senior portfolio manager of the entire family of SMI Funds since their creation in As senior portfolio manager, Mr. Biller has ultimate decision-making authority regarding all portfolio decisions and trading practices of the Sound Mind Investing Funds.

In addition to his duties at the Advisor, Mr. Biller has been the Executive Editor of the Sound Mind Investing newsletter and online business for over 15 years. The Sound Mind Investing newsletter was first published in and currently has many thousands of subscribers. Since it was first published over 30 years ago, the newsletter has provided recommendations to tens of thousands of subscribers using a variety of investment strategies, including the Stock Upgrading, Dynamic Asset Allocation, Bond Upgrading and Sector Rotation strategies that are used by the Funds.

Biller earned his B. Yahoo partners with Morningstar a leading market research and investment data group to help investors rate and compare funds on Yahoo Finance. The Morningstar Category is shown next to the Morningstar Style Box which identifies a fund's investment focus, based on the underlying securities in the fund. While the investment objective stated in a fund's prospectus may or may not reflect how the fund actually invests, the Morningstar category is assigned based on the underlying securities in each portfolio.

Morningstar categories help investors and investment professionals make meaningful comparisons between funds. The categories make it easier to build well-diversified portfolios, assess potential risk, and identify top-performing funds. We place funds in a given category based on their portfolio statistics and compositions over the past three years.

If the fund is new and has no portfolio history, we estimate where it will fall before giving it a more permanent category assignment. This advice has worked beautifully in recent decades as bond yields have fallen from the mid-teens to the low single-digits.

As these yields have fallen, bond prices have risen, producing year after year of strong, stable returns. Specifically, we've grown increasingly concerned that bonds will no longer provide the downside protection — the safe-haven aspect — that investors count on them to provide. With bond prices at all-time highs as a result of the Fed pushing yields to unnatural lows, it's safe to say the U.

Meanwhile, government borrowing has exploded. Like a rubber band wound tighter and tighter, a limit will eventually be reached. At some point, lenders will look at the massive debt loads that even "credit-worthy" borrowers such as the U. Bond yields will eventually rise, and bond prices will eventually fall. The only question is when. Unfortunately, there's no such thing as a permanent safe haven in investing. This may come as a surprise to those who have watched money flood into U.

Treasury bonds at every sign of trouble over the past decade. But we're reaching the point when government finances become the source of the trouble. That point has arrived in Europe already, and eventually it's coming here too.

The dominant financial issue of our time is how to deal with the massive amount of debt that governments around the world have amassed. This problem has been building for decades, but the tipping point was reached in the aftermath of 's financial crisis. The pressure is on to reduce these debt loads as a percentage of national income. The question is no longer whether something needs to be done, but how to deal with it and specifically when. This "deleveraging" process — reducing debt in relation to income — can be attempted in different ways.

One way is to cut spending, which is often referred to as "austerity. What we've learned from watching their efforts is that austerity in the face of an already weak economy is extremely painful. This path has caused dramatic recessions in much of Europe, creating a vicious cycle of lower income, leading to lower tax revenues, leading to even greater government debt. This process is deflationary by nature, meaning prices and wages fall as unemployment rises and demand for goods declines. Not only does austerity cause great economic pain, it also gets democratically elected politicians voted out of office.

This lesson hasn't been lost on politicians in other countries, as we've witnessed in the recent U. Significant spending cuts, in today's environment, are political suicide. Deflation and recession may well win out anyway, but the powers that be aren't going to surrender without fighting for more deficit spending.

An alternative approach to stimulating an economy has been what the central banks have been trying to do with their "quantitative easing" programs. To this point, these massive efforts have barely succeeded in keeping the global economy slightly above stall speed. The risk, of course, is that eventually inflation is ignited by these stimulative measures. This hasn't happened to this point because the deflationary impact of recessions and deleveraging have been overwhelming these otherwise inflationary policies.

But this could change, perhaps without much warning, particularly if real economic growth did begin once again. Ironically, governments currently welcome modest inflation, as it helps them repay their debts in cheaper dollars. But this is a dangerous game, as inflation is not easily tamed once unleashed. Despite the obvious potential risks ahead, it's surprisingly easy to build an optimistic case, at least for the short-term.

By some measures, the U. Corporations continue to see record earnings and are extremely well capitalized. And governments have shown an incredible ability to turn what seem to be crises into a long, protracted process instead. Even if a day of reckoning is coming, it still could be years away. The range of potential short-term economic — and investment — outcomes is wider than ever.

As SMI has long maintained, trying to predict the economic future is a losing game. But the stakes have rarely been higher, given the aforementioned valuation extremes in the bond market. If bonds are no longer an adequate safe haven, where else can we turn? In the late s, investment adviser Harry Browne began promoting an investing strategy he called the Permanent Portfolio PP. The main idea behind it is that economic conditions change over time, cycling unpredictably through extremes of prosperity, inflation, recession, and deflation.

Each of these phases produces specific investment winners and losers. What you want to own during a recession may well be the opposite of what will perform well during an economic recovery, and so on. Browne's solution was to divide a portfolio into four equal investments, each highly uncorrelated with the others meaning they each "march to different drummers".

One-fourth of the portfolio was to be allocated, respectively, to stocks, bonds, gold, and interest-earning short-term investments such as U. Treasury bills referred to as "cash" for short. These were selected because each would excel under a different economic extreme. Thus, the portfolio would always have at least one of the four pieces completely in tune with the current environment.

Other than rebalancing periodically, this mix was unchanging, thus the Permanent Portfolio name. This exceedingly simple approach has performed quite admirably over the past three decades. From , such a portfolio gained roughly 8. The real virtue of this approach was how little volatility it generated: only two years of negative returns, and the worst was just We liked the main idea of the PP strategy, but there seemed to be two significant downsides.

First, while our goal was to create an approach that appeals to safety-conscious investors, this system was even more conservative than most investors need. Today, cash earns virtually nothing, so permanently fixing a quarter of the portfolio there is a non-starter. If this type of approach was going to work for us, we clearly were going to need to broaden the basket of asset classes beyond the four proposed by Harry Browne. The second problem has less to do with the portfolio and more to do with human nature.

The PP has looked great over the past decade or so, due to stocks being weak while bonds and gold have been soaring. It will always look its best following sharp bear markets in stocks, of which we've had two in the past dozen years. But there have been long stretches when the PP lagged the market badly. We've watched investor behavior very closely over the past 22 years, and know how few have the willpower to stick with an approach like this when stocks are crushing the returns of their PP.

Investors simply don't stick with systems at times like those — the emotional component is simply too powerful. And yet, the years that followed were exactly the time to embrace the Permanent Portfolio! Unfortunately, the idea of a static portfolio with no "switching mechanism" would have likely led many to miss the gains of , only to switch to stocks in time to experience the sharp losses of It seemed that a timing mechanism of some sort would be needed.

While a pure application of the PP wasn't going to work for us, it did spark our thinking about working with "extreme" asset classes that weren't correlated to each other. The breakthrough came when we started testing what happens when we own only the asset classes showing momentum at that particular time , rather than owning all of them all the time.

Sound familiar? It should — we were simply applying an Upgrading-like momentum screen on top of the Permanent Portfolio idea. It's natural to scan the year-by-year results at right and focus on the final results at the bottom of the columns. These are back-tested results using mechanical formulas. From , the results are those from investing in the asset class benchmarks; from Nov , the results are those from investing in the actual ETFs, most of which didn't exist prior to that time.

That's great, but it's hardly the main story. Remember, the beginning point of this journey was to find a replacement for bonds as a safe haven for risk-averse investors. If boosting a portfolio's bond allocation wasn't going to provide the safety from future market storms that we've counted on in the past, we needed something else that would.

That's the real value of this new strategy. Compare each year's returns for DAA vs. A few things should stand out. First, DAA has only had one losing year, a loss of Now look specifically at and While stocks were plummeting and investors were full of panic and fear, DAA investors would have been breathing easy.

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A Fund's income, gains, losses and deductions are allocated to shareholders on a monthly basis. If you own shares in a Fund at the beginning. OperaFund Eco-Invest SICAV PLC and Schwab Holding AG v. Kingdom of Spain Respondent's Comments on the Allocation of Costs and on Claimants'. The level of retail investor participation in EU capital markets remains very low compared Regulations and regulators must keep in mind that the overall.